Claude Giroux? Brent Burns? Phil Kessel? Revisiting their Hall of Fame cases

Publish date: 2024-05-25

It’s Hockey Hall of Fame time, with the class of 2022 being honored all week leading up to Monday’s big induction gala. Roberto Luongo, Henrik and Daniel Sedin, Daniel Alfredsson and Riikka Sallinen are all worthy honorees in the player category, and the Hall is finally recognizing Herb Carnegie as a builder. It’s a great chance to look back and reflect on some true greats.

It’s also a chance to look ahead, and try to figure out which players might join Luongo and friends in the Hall some day. That sort of debate is half the fun when it comes to a hall of fame, and I’ve never turned down an opportunity to weigh in. One of my favorite pieces to write each year around this time is the one where I take a look at some active players and try to figure out if they’re on an HHOF path.

I’m going to do it again this year, but with a twist. Rather than coming up with new names, I’m going to revisit a half-dozen players that I’ve looked at over the years. Each of them was a borderline call at the time, and each is still active today. We’ll look at where their case stood a few years ago, what’s happened since, and whether they’re trending up or down. Then we’ll head down to the comment section, where you will yell at me about my wrong opinions and be mad that I didn’t include your favorite non-active player in a post that is only about active players.

New post: I wrote about the late Herb Carnegie, and an inspiring story that's (finally) taking its rightful place in the Hall of Fame.https://t.co/NOgNqiLw2N

— Down Goes Brown (@DownGoesBrown) June 28, 2022

As an added bonus, I’m also going to enlist some impartial help. Paul Pidutti has developed a model to produce “a comprehensive measure of HHOF worthiness” for players, based on a variety of factors including stats, honors, international play, longevity and peak. He’s been tweeting his player cards from his Twitter account at @AdjustedHockey and his website at AdjustedHockey.com includes a detailed explanation of how the system works. No model is perfect, obviously, but it’s fun to be able to look at a case from a different angle, and Paul has graciously agreed to check in on our six candidates and share what his numbers say.

Note: Team graphic on player cards indicate where they played their most games.

The last time we looked: At the end of the 2018-19 season, Kessel’s last with the Penguins.

The case at the time: Kessel had two Cup rings and a Masterton, had been robbed of a Conn Smythe, plus he was on pace to “cruise by the 1,000-point mark, maybe by a decent amount.” He was also just three years away from breaking the ironman record held by Doug Jarvis.

My verdict back then: I didn’t see him making the cut, partly because I couldn’t see anyone on the HHOF committee really going to bat for him. I did write that “if he can keep scoring near a point-per-game rate for a few more years, he’ll make it interesting”.

What’s changed since: Kessel spent the last three seasons in Arizona, which was great for his poker game but didn’t exactly boost his visibility. His numbers have been OK, but he hasn’t had the sort of late-career boost you might hope for. He still hasn’t hit that 1,000-point plateau and might not get there this season, and 500 goals is no longer in the realm of possibility.

That said, Kessel’s case has two things working for it. First, he’s on the Golden Knights now, and they look like a legitimate Cup contender, so another long playoff run could resurface his case. More importantly, he did indeed break that ironman record, although it belonged to Keith Yandle instead of Jarvis by the time Kessel got there. He’s about to become the only NHL player to ever hit the 1,000 consecutive game mark, which is pretty ridiculous for anyone, let alone a guy who spent his whole career being told he was an out-of-shape schlub.

Which way the case is trending: The ironman record gives him a signature accomplishment to build his candidacy around. But the offensive numbers have slowed more than we’d hoped, and at 35 we can’t pencil him in for much more production like we could a few years ago. Even with the record, I think his chances have dipped.

Adjusted Hockey says: “His Adjusted Pace is quietly 30 goals/40 assists/70 points, equal to Darryl Sittler’s. While there are 21 active forwards ahead of him, his playoff heroics and legend as the ‘everyman’ ironman boosts a borderline statistical case.”

The last time we looked: Early in the 2019-20 season, when Giroux was a 31-year-old lifelong Flyer.

The case at the time: He was a good player who’d very briefly been in the “best in the league” conversation and had three top-five Hart finishes. He’d just about always been a tier or two behind the Crosbys and McDavids of the world, but could still be Hall-worthy in the same way that guys like Dale Hawerchuk and Denis Savard were during the Gretzky/Lemieux era. That said, he hadn’t even cracked 800 career points yet, so he still had work to do.

My verdict back then: He wasn’t there yet but was on track to be a coin flip. I wondered if one more star-level season could put him over the edge, and compared his case to Ryan Getzlaf.

What’s changed since: He’s no longer a Flyer, having a quick stop in Florida before joining Ottawa. Bouncing around late in a career seems to hurt some borderline cases, although the hometown boy narrative with the Senators probably negates that. The bigger issue is that one more big season hasn’t come yet, although last year’s 65 points wasn’t bad.

Which way the case is trending: At 34 and with a few more productive seasons presumably coming in Ottawa, Giroux seems like a good bet to pass 1,000 points and could even crack 1,100. The goal totals won’t be impressive, but he’s always been a playmaker so that shouldn’t hurt much.

In the end, I think the Getzlaf comparison holds up. If the long-time Duck gets in, that opens the door.

Adjusted Hockey says: “Giroux has quietly built a fabulous career, but remains in the ‘Hall of Very Good’ by the numbers. Every two-time Hart finalist in history is in the HHOF, and Giroux has finished third, fourth and fourth. Worth a deeper dive when all is said and done.”

The last time we looked: Back in 2018-19, when he was 31 but already fourth in career assists among active players. He was coming off a 74-point season and had even started to get a smattering of Selke love for this two-way game.

The case at the time: Backstrom had a case as the best pure playmaker of his era apart from Sidney Crosby and Joe Thornton. While he hadn’t hit the 100-point heights he’d reached a decade earlier, he was still churning along at nearly a point-per-game pace.

My verdict back then: I didn’t think he was a lock yet, although a lot of you in the comments sure did. Instead, I said he’d probably need to get to 1,200 points to be a sure thing. And he was on track to get there, as long as he stayed healthy.

What’s changed since: He didn’t stay healthy. After two more reasonably productive seasons, Backstrom’s hip problems have cost him a big chunk of last year and all of this one so far. The surgery he had last offseason has a lengthy recovery time, and there’s no guarantee that he plays this year. There’s really no guarantee that he plays again at all, or of what sort of player he’ll be if he does return.

Which way the case is trending: Down, sadly, because this is almost entirely injury-related. Backstrom did cross the 1,000-point mark last season, so he’s got one major milestone for the Hall to consider. And it’s become well-accepted that players whose careers are cut short by injury receive some credit for what might have been. Is Backstrom good enough to get the same sort of benefit of the doubt that the committee gave guys like Paul Kariya, Cam Neely and Peter Forsberg? Here’s hoping he can come back strong and we don’t need to find out, but right now I’m not sure he has a strong enough case.

Adjusted Hockey says: “His whopping 83 Adjusted Point Pace is HHOF-quality, but only includes 22 goals, making it a bit hollow. With a lack of award love, he likely faces a longer-term path, but is certainly a star and worth a deeper look.”

The last time we looked: Pretty much exactly one year ago, when Giordano had just gone from Calgary to Seattle in the expansion draft and been named the first captain in Kraken history.

The case at the time: He had a Norris Trophy, which has typically been a pre-punched ticket to the Hall for everyone other than Randy Carlyle. But other than that, his case was very borderline.

My verdict back then: I was a narrow no but left the door open if he could write a Marc-Andre Fleury-style success story as the first face of an expansion team.

What’s changed since: He became a Maple Leaf, so now he’s in.

Or is he? There’s been a longstanding narrative out there with hockey fans that playing for the Leafs makes somebody an HHOF lock, but does it? Doug Gilmour had 1,400 points and still had to wait five years. Eric Lindros waited six. Dave Andreychuk and his 640 goals waited nearly a decade. The committee’s stubbornness on Pat Burns was disgraceful. Curtis Joseph still isn’t in, and somehow Alexander Mogilny isn’t either. Other than maybe Mats Sundin going in on the first ballot instead of waiting a year or two, who’s the modern Maple Leaf that got an easy ride from the committee? Maybe Joe Nieuwendyk, who had all of one season in Toronto? If there’s a bias, then if anything it seems to go the other way.

Yeah, I just wanted to work that rant in here. As far as Giordano, it’s fair to say that the Seattle thing didn’t end up boosting his case much.

Which way the case is trending: It’s only been a year, but nothing has happened that changed his chances.

Adjusted Hockey says: “Despite the fact that only one eligible Norris winner is outside the HHOF, Giordano’s statistical case remains light. Having his first full season at age 26 hurts his case in what has been a wonderful, classy career.”

The last time we looked: Back in 2019-20, when Burns was 34 and coming off a year where he was second in Norris balloting.

The case at the time: Burns is another former Norris winner, and unlike Giordano, he also has multiple other seasons as a finalist. His peak had been relatively short compared to some HHOFers, but he’d been arguably the best blueliner in the league during it. He was still 200 points behind some of the most recent offensive defensemen to make it in, so there was ground to cover.

My verdict back then: I had him headed toward induction as long as he didn’t see a sharp drop in production and/or run into late-career injury trouble.

What’s changed since: Burns is with the Hurricanes now, and his days as a Norris candidate seem to be done. But he’s still a very effective player, one who’s stayed reasonably productive into his late-30s, and he’s passed Hall-of-Famers like Rob Blake and Sergei Zubov in career scoring. Those totals are inflated a bit because some of Burns’ career was spent at forward, but he also played in a lower-scoring era, so that probably washes out.

Which way the case is trending: He was on track three years ago and I don’t see anything that’s happened since to change that. He’s not a lock yet, but he’s probably the strongest bet of anyone on today’s list.

Adjusted Hockey says: “Burns is qualified by the numbers, still contributing, and an extremely fun player. He was a top-10 defenseman for six straight years, including a three-year run(!!) as the No. 1 blueliner in the league.”

The last time we looked: Back in 2019-20, when he was 34 and heading into his eighth season in Minnesota, a team he would always play for because buying out his contract would be impossible.

The case at the time: Suter had been very good for a long time, getting Norris votes in 10 straight seasons. But you could question whether he’d ever been truly great, with just one year as an All-Star or Norris finalist. This made him a frustrating candidate for the peak vs. longevity crowd. You could make the case that he was another Doug Wilson or Rob Blake, but also that he was a classic Hall of Very Good guy like Eric Desjardins or Kevin Hatcher. Or his uncle Gary Suter, for that matter.

My verdict back then: I said I’d vote no but could see him getting in, and was hoping that the next few years would nudge us one way or another.

What’s changed since: Not much, other than that Suter did get bought out and is now in Dallas. At 37, he doesn’t get Norris votes anymore — his last one came in 2019 — but he’s still eating big ice time on a very good team.

Which way the case is trending: I’m not sure it is. If you thought he was a classic steady hand who deserved consideration three years ago, you haven’t seen anything to change your mind. If you didn’t think his peak was good enough, it’s long since past. And if you were confused and hoping for some clarity, I don’t think he’s provided any.

Adjusted Hockey says: “Suter has had a steady, sneaky-great career. Lower offensive totals and a lack of playoff resume to date have him outside.”

So there’s the update on six tough calls, all of which are still, well, tough calls.

There were some guys who improved their chances enough that I don’t think they’re debatable anymore. Marc-Andre Fleury is one. I thought he was on the way but not a lock in 2018-19, but he’s since added a Vezina and moved into the third spot on the all-time wins list, so he’s going to be in. I think the way the still-technically-active Shea Weber’s career ended moves him from tougher-call-than-you-think territory to close to a lock. And I spawned a heated comment section debate by suggesting that Patrice Bergeron wasn’t a lock yet in 2019 when he had just over 800 points and four Selkes. He’s since added a fifth to go with two runner-up finishes and is about to crack 1,000 points, so he’s moved into sure-thing territory (if he wasn’t already).

Let me know who else you think is worth debating, or who you think is an easy call one way or another that you want to sell us on. Want to revisit other names, like Eric Staal or Corey Perry? Have thoughts on somebody we haven’t mentioned, like Joe Pavelski or John Tavares? Still mad about Kevin Lowe and Guy Carbonneau and just looking for a place to vent about it? Awesome, let’s go fight in the comments section.

(Photo of Claude Giroux: James Guillory / USA Today)

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Claude Giroux? Brent Burns? Phil Kessel? Revisiting their Hall of Fame cases