2023 The Players Championship odds, expert picks, sleepers: Jon Rahm looks for another win

The PGA Tour moves from the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Bayhill to The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. It’ll be an excellent field once again, as $25 million is up for grabs. TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye design that measures out more than 7,250 yards and plays as a Par 72. There is volatility baked into this course, with almost every player on the PGA Tour.

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The final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational provided almost as much drama as a U.S. Open, with big names moving up and down the leaderboard with every passing hole. Jordan Spieth captured the audience with an early run of one-putts and narrow escapes from trouble before ultimately being done in by the announcer’s curse on some important four-footers late. I kid around about an announcer’s curse, but everyone who had Spieth at 45-1 cringed when they heard Paul Azinger talking about his perfect record for the week from a short distance. Relatively unknown Kurt Kitayama ultimately won the tournament after overcoming a triple bogey in his final round. The win, along with the $3.6 million payday, will set him up for years to come when it comes to the pecking order of the haves and have-nots on the PGA Tour.

I don’t usually revisit the results of the prior week’s tournaments in this column, but I think there is some valuable betting information to be had this week. If you followed along with my betting card, we were live with win tickets for Scheffler and Spieth on Sunday. Spieth provided the best opportunity to make big money, but Scheffler was nothing to sneeze at. There were a ton of players in contention with Tyrrell Hatton and Rory McIlroy being the biggest issues if they came from behind to win. I put a hedge bet on Kitayama after his birdie on the sixth hole. He had made a bogey earlier in the round on the fourth hole, but he didn’t beat himself up about it and bounced back nicely at the sixth. I got the bet in right before he hit his tee shot on the seventh hole. The odds weren’t great, but the payout would cover my week plus some money to go into this week.

Once he made the triple on No. 9, I decided to sit back on my hands and eat the week if none of my guys came out on top. Patrick Cantlay being in the clubhouse at -7 made for a bit of a stopper. Someone was going to limp in at -8 or better and I was pulling for it to be Spieth or Scheffler while Kitayama was a bit of an afterthought. I just wasn’t sure who it would be after seeing player after player misses short putts on the back nine. Kitayama made the pars when he needed to and added a birdie on No. 17 that sealed it. If it wasn’t for the triple bogey on the ninth, we would all be talking about the long birdie putt he made on the seventh that picked up over a stroke on the field just as the pressure was ramping up.

I have friends in my WhatsApp betting group that were throwing out bets on almost every player down the stretch. If they were playing roulette, they would have had chips all over the board only to see 00 come out when Kitayama won and walked away empty-handed. I think being too involved in betting chat groups can lead to some FOMO (fear of missing out) that can lead decent gamblers into making poor decisions. There becomes almost a frenzy with every birdie as screenshots of the odds that people are getting the player making a move are posted. I’m just shedding light on this to help the few of you who may find yourself in similar groups.

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Back to The Players Championship this week. There are a few Pete Dye specialists and elite ball strikers that tend to overcome any conditions here, but I stress there are very few of them. For example, McIlroy has won here once in his last five tries, finished 30th or worse, and missed the cut twice each. A wind gust at the wrong time will lead to disaster while the tee boxes play tricks with your mind on how to attack a hole. I’m stressing strokes gained on approach and strokes gained tee to green this week, while also factoring strokes gained on Pete Dye designs as well. Strokes gained around the green won’t be as heavily factored as it was last week as the rough isn’t nearly as penal as it was at Bay Hill.

John Hayes also previewed The Players Championship looking at who he’d take in a traditional pool setup.

Betting slip

All odds from BetMGM. Always shop for the best prices.

Jon Rahm +900 will not be as bad off the tee at TPC Sawgrass as he was at Bay Hill. How can he be? It was the worst week I can remember for the Spaniard. Rahm lost 6.23 strokes off the tee and only his putting and the decent iron game kept him from finishing dead last. I’m not as worried about Rahm with his driver as I would be with Sam Burns and his irons. I think it’s something Rahm can figure out rather quickly in a place where he has contended and comes in as my No. 1 option. We all thought he was going to win here in 2021 before Justin Thomas made a miracle comeback to pull out the victory.

Patrick Cantlay +1800 has struggled at The Players Championship the last few years, missing three cuts in a row. Cantlay is coming into this week off of back-to-back top 5 finishes at elevated events where he gained more than 22 strokes from tee to green combined. If he putt the ball a little better on Saturday, he may have walked away with the win at Bay Hill instead of settling for T4.

Viktor Hovland +2500 comes into this week hoping to forget his issues around the green at Bay Hill. Luckily for us, TPC Sawgrass has rewarded the players playing the best from tee to green traditionally and Hovland is doing two of the three things needed to dominate that category. Hovland has gotten back to his elite driving ways since the AT&T Pro-Am and that culminated last week when he gained 6.27 strokes off the tee at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has gotten better on approach each of his last three outings gaining 3.67 strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Tom Kim +4000 hasn’t been quite the world-beater he looked to be at the end of last season, but he isn’t that far off from going on a run. If you had told me you would get Kim at 40-1 on a course that rewards elite ball striking in the fall I would have thrown the cash at you. He got back to driving it straight at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and gained 1.3 strokes off the tee for the week. He also started to get his irons going again as he gained 2.68 strokes on approach.

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Keegan Bradley +5000 is coming into this week off of another fine showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained 6.66 strokes for the week ball striking and if that isn’t a sign I don’t know what is. In all seriousness, he looks great this year. He’s in the best shape of his life and seems to be in control of his game. He’s even made great strides with his putter. In my model, he is inside the top 10 of plays and is first in strokes gained on approach over his last 36 rounds when Pete Dye courses are weighed in.

Sleepers

Ryan Fox +25000 has five top-five finishes since May of last year on the DP World Tour. He finished T14 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and gained strokes everywhere except being a slight loss off the tee. When he’s right, he is an excellent ball striker which showed up in his last two events worldwide before the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained over 15 strokes combined on approach.

Ben Griffin +28000 finished T14 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite having his worst week on approach all season. He lost over four strokes on approach but made it up everywhere else. He’s gained strokes on approach every week since the Sanderson Farms in October before last week’s little blip. He has been very good off the tee the last two weeks gaining over five strokes combined.

DFS plays

Rory McIlroy $11,000 is a very close second in my model, and he comes in at an $800 discount compared to Rahm’s $11,800 because the DraftKings pricing was set before the Arnold Palmer Invitational finished. McIlroy’s putter went cold for two weeks, which led to mediocre by his standards finishes. He lost over eight strokes combined with the putter at the WM Phoenix Open and at The Genesis Invitational but bounced back last week gaining .71 strokes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. In the last three weeks, he has gained more than 11 strokes combined on approach so I’m not worried about his iron play at all.

Scottie Scheffler $10,600 was a putter away from defending another title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained 10.42 strokes from tee to green for the week. He has been elite off the tee lately as he has gained more than 10 strokes combined off the tee at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He doesn’t have a good record here with a missed cut and a T55 under his belt which should drive some ownership down despite the $1200 discount from top-priced Rahm. Some courses are pitfalls for players, but I would bet on the Masters champion figuring out TPC Sawgrass.

Justin Thomas $9,400 finished a solid T21 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but it didn’t set the world on fire. I really like getting him at this price on this course where he has a ton of fond memories. He’s been getting better and better off the tee and on approach the last few outings. He has gained 2.65 strokes on approach or more in three out of his last four tournaments. He has gained 3.46 strokes or more off the tee in two out of his last three tournaments. He hasn’t quite put it all together at the same time which can be frustrating, but what’s not to like at this price?

Viktor Hovland $8,900 See above.

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Will Zalatoris $8,800 crushed my hopes and dreams last week, but as we all know that is my own fault for using him in one and done. I am expecting a bounce back this week He has gained more than 8 strokes combined off the tee in his last two outings as well as over 13 strokes combined in the ball striking category. His short game killed him last week as he lost more than 5 strokes, but has a nice start to his career at TPC Sawgrass finishing 21st and T26 in his first two tries.

Matt Fitzpatrick $8,600 had me worried this year. I thought he was really going to build on the U.S. Open win by jumping out to grab some wins early in the season, but he had struggled with his game dealing with a neck injury. He looked to return to his elite ball-striking ways last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational gaining 6.87 strokes ball striking for the week. He has contended here, finishing ninth in 2021.

Tyrrell Hatton $8,300 was making all kinds of faces on the greens on Sunday as his putter let him down when he tried to make a push for another Arnold Palmer Invitational title. He is on an incredible run of form. He has gained 8.55 strokes ball striking or more in two out of his last three tournaments. He has seven top-13 finishes since August.

Shane Lowry $8,200 finally made a cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but struggled to do anything on the weekend as the course ate him up a bit. He has back-to-back top 13 finishes here and was in complete control of his game only a week ago at the Honda Classic so I think he can bounce back. He had gained more than 13 strokes combined ball striking before last week’s hiccup.

Jason Day $8,000 keeps chugging along as he posted another top-10 finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’m concerned that his approach numbers are starting to come down a bit as he hasn’t gained on approach in his last two outings, but his price keeps me in on him for DFS. He has gained 3.67 strokes putting or more in five straight. That’s getting into elite territory with the flat stick.

Si Woo Kim $7,600 has not been nearly as good on approach since his win at the Sony Open in January. He gained over 8 strokes on the field that week on approach meanwhile he has lost over 7.5 strokes on approach combined since. Si Woo has won here before and has been really good off the tee lately which is encouraging. He has gained almost six strokes combined off the tee over his last three tournaments. He has gained over 23 strokes to the field combined at this tournament.

Keegan Bradley $7,500 See above.

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Brian Harman $7,400 has been in really poor form this calendar year. It’s a stark contrast to how he looked in the fall when he was flying up leaderboards. He has two top 8 finishes in his last three trips here so I’m tempted into taking a chance and at least using him once as a low-owned pivot in a GPP.

Keith Mitchell $7,400 has made three out of his last four cuts here with a T13 last year. He continued his fine run of form last week with a T24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained 6.69 strokes off the tee. His short game killed his chances to contend and that seems to pop up every few tournaments for Mitchell. I’m not too concerned and really like the price this week.

Corey Conners $7,400 was in and around my initial write ups for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but I left him out because he had been mediocre on approach at the WM Phoenix Open and not good at all with his irons at the Genesis Invitational. He got back to his ball-striking ways last week gaining 6.82 strokes ball striking at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has been good here with a seventh-place finish in 2021 being his best finish.

Kurt Kitayama $6,900 comes in at this low price because the prices were set before the end of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s only 5-foot-7 but drives it over 307 yards on average with a ball flight that can be as straight as any on tour. Kitayama winning wasn’t a fluke. He had five top-seven finishes since last year’s second-place finish at the Honda Classic. I think it is surprising considering the field and the leaderboard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but it didn’t come out of the blue. I expect a hangover for Kitayama after such a huge win, but I don’t think it matters much at this price. I am concerned his ownership may be too high for the volatility we see with first-time winners trying to back it up the following week.

Ryan Fox $6,700 See above.

Adam Svensson $6,600 has gained on approach five out of his last seven tournaments since his win at the RSM Classic in the fall. His short game got him a top 10 at the Genesis Invitational, but he has gained over five strokes combined in his last two outings.

Trey Mullinax $6,600 has made seven out of his last nine cuts with the two missed cuts being WDs. His ball striking can get hot for stretches which we saw last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and BMW Championship where he gained over 11.5 strokes combined ball striking against elite fields. He has had two top tens since then with one coming last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained 6.66 strokes from tee to green at Bay Hill.

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Brandon Wu $6,400 has gained over 2.23 strokes off the tee in three out of his last four outings. He gained 7.55 strokes on approach in his last outing at the Honda Classic. If he can get consistent with the putter, there is much to like about his game.

Nate Lashley $6,200 has made three straight cuts since withdrawing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He finished T3 last week at the Puerto Rico Open. He is an interesting salary relief option as he already has a top 10 this year at a non-secondary tournament at the Sony Open.

Kramer Hickok $6,000 has gained more than 9 strokes combined ball striking in his last two tournaments. He has also gained over 3.6 strokes off the tee in that same time frame. He has made the cut here in each of the last two years.

One and Done

Standings

DeWitt – $6,078,516 (7 of 8 cuts made, 1 winner)

Hayes – $2,394,818 (7 of 8 cuts made)

Esser – $1,328,032 (6 of 8 cuts made)

Esser: I don’t want to curse another good player this week, but I have to choose someone so I am going with Viktor Hovland. He struggled with his short game at Bay Hill but was magic with his irons. He holed out from the fairway and had a hole-in-one. The iron game will be important this week, and Hovland is trending toward an elite level with his ball striking. If I were you, I would look at Will Zalatoris to bounce back this week after I put the curse on him last week.

Hayes: This week is the perfect opportunity for Max Homa to make the next step in his career. His superb iron play and putting fits TPC Sawgrass. The putter is really working for Homa this season as well and the poa greens on the Stadium Course should suit him beautifully. Homa ranks third in strokes gained putting on poa greens. His Southern California roots make him an expert on that type of surface.

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DeWitt: The volatility of the Stadium Course worries me when making this pick, but with the purse so high this week, you have to use a big player in this position. I’m going with Rory McIlroy to have a solid week. Rory pretty much does everything well and he’s been consistently good this season. I hope TPC Sawgrass doesn’t chew Rory up and spit him out, but that’s what you get for betting on this tournament every year.

(Photo of Jon Rahm: Sam Greenwood / Getty Images)

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